Why Mortgage Rates Moved This Week: October 30, 2026

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 28. The 10-year Treasury yield closed that day at 5.05%, up from 4.99% on Tuesday, and on Thursday it closed at 4.98%, the same morning a hotter inflation reading and a stronger growth estimate came out.

Why did mortgage rates move this week? Through Thursday, October 29, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.98%, down from 5.00% the Friday before, and Freddie Mac's weekly survey average for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 7.24% from 7.32%.

As of the Thursday, October 29, 2026 close. Friday's close posts after this was written.

I'm Jeff Moran, a mortgage broker in Bluffton, South Carolina, originating since 1996, licensed in fifteen states, NMLS #483943, through C2 Financial Corporation. I write this page each week. It reports what happened in the bond market and makes no forecast, and everything below comes from the public sources named in each sentence.

How the week looked, day by day

The first table shows where each yield started and ended. The second shows the 10-year Treasury at each close. The week runs from Friday, October 23, through Thursday's close, because Friday's close had not posted when this was written.

What we track	Start of the week	End of the week	Change (percentage points)
10-year Treasury	5.00% (Fri Oct 23)	4.98% (Thu Oct 29)	−0.02
2-year Treasury	4.69% (Fri Oct 23)	4.61% (Thu Oct 29)	−0.08
30-year Treasury	5.33% (Fri Oct 23)	5.32% (Thu Oct 29)	−0.01
10-year breakeven inflation	2.34% (Fri Oct 23)	2.35% (Thu Oct 29)	+0.01
30-year fixed, Freddie Mac survey	7.32% (Oct 22)	7.24% (Oct 29)	−0.08
15-year fixed, Freddie Mac survey	6.68% (Oct 22)	6.60% (Oct 29)	−0.08

10-year close by day	Fri Oct 23	Mon Oct 26	Tue Oct 27	Wed Oct 28	Thu Oct 29
Yield	5.00%	5.00%	4.99%	5.05%	4.98%

The yields come from the Treasury's daily yield curve, and the Change column is in percentage points. The 10-year yield ended the week at 4.98%, down from 5.00%, but it got there by rising on Wednesday and falling back on Thursday. The 2-year yield fell the most, from 4.69% to 4.61%. Breakeven inflation, which is the inflation rate the bond market is pricing in over ten years, barely moved, from 2.34% to 2.35%.

You can keep following the same table every week on the weekly rates page.

Did the Fed move rates this week?

No. The Federal Open Market Committee met October 27 and 28 and, according to the Federal Reserve's October 28 policy statement, left the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. The decision came out at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday.

The 10-year Treasury closed higher that day, at 5.05% against 4.99% on Tuesday. That is a fact about Wednesday's close, and it is not proof that the decision caused it, because a bond yield takes in everything that happens in a day. By Thursday's close the 10-year was back to 4.98%, which is lower than where it stood before the meeting.

Inflation, growth and jobless claims on Thursday

Thursday morning at 8:30 Eastern brought several releases at once. The Bureau of Economic Analysis published September's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, an inflation gauge:

• Headline PCE rose 0.5% for the month, compared with 0.3% in August. Over twelve months it stands at 3.6%, compared with 3.4% for August.
• Core PCE, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month, the same as August. Over twelve months it stands at 3.1%, compared with 3.0% for August.

The same agency's advance estimate for third-quarter GDP put growth at 3.4% at an annual rate, which is the quarter's pace stretched over a full year, compared with 2.2% in the second quarter. And the Labor Department reported weekly jobless claims of 194,000, compared with 195,000 the week before.

Inflation came in hotter than the prior reading and growth came in stronger. The 10-year Treasury closed lower that day, at 4.98% against 5.05% the day before.

How does the 10-year Treasury affect mortgage rates?

The 10-year Treasury yield is the interest rate the government pays to borrow for ten years, and it is a number that updates every trading day. Mortgage rates have tended to move in the same direction over time, which is why I show it here, and the chain between the two is laid out in what actually moves your mortgage rate.

The two don't move in lockstep on any given day. Freddie Mac's survey also works differently from the bond market. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey publishes a weekly average, with the latest reading dated Thursday, so it trails the bond market's daily moves. It is a national survey average, and it isn't a quote from me or from any lender, and it can't tell you what your own loan would cost.

On Thursday, October 29, Freddie Mac's 30-year figure of 7.24% was 2.26 percentage points above the 10-year Treasury's close of 4.98%. Your own rate depends on your credit score, your down payment, the home and the loan type, and how your credit score changes your mortgage rate explains the tiers behind that.

The October jobs report is next week

The October jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation release, is scheduled for Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. I'll cover it in next week's issue, along with whatever the bond market does around it.

Common questions

Why did mortgage rates go down this week?

Through Thursday, October 29, 2026, Freddie Mac's survey average for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell from 7.32% to 7.24%, and its 15-year average fell from 6.68% to 6.60%. Over the same stretch the 10-year Treasury yield went from 5.00% to 4.98%, and the 2-year yield went from 4.69% to 4.61%. Those are national survey averages, not offers, and the 10-year went up on Wednesday and down on Thursday on its way to that small net move.

Did the Fed cut rates in October 2026?

No. The Federal Open Market Committee met October 27 and 28, 2026 and held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. The 10-year Treasury closed higher on Wednesday, the day of the decision, at 5.05%, and lower on Thursday, at 4.98%. The Fed's target range is a short-term rate, and mortgage rates follow a chain of other markets, so a hold doesn't set a mortgage rate on its own.

What did the inflation report say on October 29, 2026?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported September's PCE price index on Thursday, October 29. Headline PCE rose 0.5% for the month, compared with 0.3% in August, and was up 3.6% over twelve months, compared with 3.4%. Core PCE rose 0.3% for the month, the same as in August, and was up 3.1% over twelve months, compared with 3.0%. The 10-year Treasury closed lower that day, at 4.98%.

What is the 30-year mortgage rate right now?

Freddie Mac's survey average for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.24% on Thursday, October 29, 2026, down from 7.32% the week before. That is a national survey average, published weekly, and it isn't what any one client is quoted. Your own rate depends on your credit, down payment, loan type and the home. You can see rate options for your own scenario on the homepage tools, with no contact form first, and why the site shows rates first is on its own page.

Should I lock my mortgage rate this week?

This issue reports what the week's yields did, and nothing in it is advice to lock or to wait. Locks, how long they last and how a float-down works are covered in when to lock your rate, and what happens if rates drop after you lock walks through the other side of it. If you'd like to talk through your own timeline, I'm happy to.

Run your own scenario

The tools on the homepage show rate options for your own scenario. If you'd rather talk it through, you can call me at (843) 765-0000. Calls are welcome, and you don't have to have started an application first.